On inferring population trends of mobile waterbirds from aerial transect surveys in variable environments

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Monitoring waterbird populations in Australia is challenging for reasons of counting logistics, and because population aggregation dispersion can shift rapidly response to large spatio-temporal variations resource availability. The East Australian Waterbird survey has conducted annual, aerial, systematic counts waterbirds over eastern almost 40 years. It was designed monitor using design-based inference though many species this form appears inadequate the face these challenges. Here we develop a state-space model-based Bayesian approach that, addition explicitly incorporating process noise observation uncertainty, uses random effects rainfall-derived covariates model year-to-year variation proportion total (super) that present on surveyed wetlands, available be counted. We use estimate superpopulation size 45 annually, rate increase as function antecedent rainfall. results confirm strong positive effect rainfall growth rates nearly all species, illustrate respond differently terms habitat use, which influences whether they are wetlands. For estimated wetlands very high. have implications making inferences trends from data, with ability sampling key requirement before any precision. This study illustrates how progress approach, infers under average conditions, general trend negative, only few occurring belief.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Environmental and Ecological Statistics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1352-8505', '1573-3009']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-021-00510-7